Monday, November 29, 2010


Wikileaks is Israeli propaganda- supporting an attack on Iran?

Wikileaks appears to be pro-Israel and anti-Moslem.

Reportedly, in the USA, there is an Obama-Brzezinski faction that wants to use certain Moslem allies in Turkey and Iran to frustrate Russia and China in Central Asia.

There is also a pro-Israel faction that is less keen on US ties to Moslems, and wants Iran to be attacked immediately.

Wikileaks would appear to be mainly the work of the pro-Israel faction.

However, the Obama-Brzezinski faction will not necessarily dislike everything in the leaks.

Israel apparently wants to smash Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and other Moslem countries. Obama has a 'more subtle' approach, seeing that CIA assets in Moslem countries such as Turkey, Iran and Indonesia can be used to turn these countries into bulwarks against Russia and China.

According to sources (Wikileaks' Newest Leak Leaked on Twitter), the latest Wikileaks documents report that:

1. Obama 'prefers to look East rather than West'. (Der Spiegel: WikiLeaks say Ahmadinejad dubbed 'Hitler')

(Obama has tried to topple Ahmadinejad using CIA 'People Power'. Obama wants to use the CIA's Iranian friends to get at Russia and China. But, Israel wants a direct military attack on Iran. Thus Wikileaks must make Iran look highly dangerous.)

2. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is like "Hitler."

Documents hint at Iranian involvement in "al-Qaeda suicide bombing." (Wikileaks: how Iran devised new suicide vest for al-Qaeda to use in Iraq)

According to WikiLeaks: the Red Crescent smuggled weapons for Iran

There were repeated private calls from King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia for the United States to attack Iran to destroy its nuclear programme and 'cut off the head of the snake'. ('embarrassing' the US ...)

US embassy cables suggest Iran is bent on nuclear bomb, Israel warns

Iran May Have Missiles From North Korea, Cables Posted by WikiLeaks Show

(All this sounds like Israeli propaganda.)

Some sites are 'dangerous'. The Pentagon may have planned to use the Wikileaks saga as an excuse to crack down on those parts of the internet that spread the truth about false flag operations.

3. The US has ties to separatist groups in Turkey (WikiLeaks 'hacked' before release).

(It might suit Israel if Turkey was to become suspicious of the USA. Israel has already fallen out with Turkey, but Obama apparently wants to use Turkey against Russia and China.)

4. Western diplomats express 'anti-Islam' sentiment in secret files.

British Foreign Office told the Sunday Times that WikiLeaks could reveal statements seen as "anti-Islam". (Netanyahu unconcerned about WikiLeaks)

(Israel wants a clash of civilisations, with the USA and Europe on the side of Israel.)

5. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan governs with "a cabal of incompetent advisors."

Angela Merkel "avoids risk and is rarely creative."

Nicolas Sarkozy is "the emperor with no clothes."

Berlusconi has "wild parties." (Berlusconi is seen as beeing too friendly with Russia)

Hamid Karzai is "driven by paranoia".

North Korean leader Kim Jong -il suffers from epilepsy.

Gaddhafi's full-time nurse is a "hot blond".


There is no mention of the infamous White House Murder INC,....or the inside Job of 9/11.....

There is apparently no mention of any CIA-Mossad involvement in the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

There is apparently no mention of Israel's activities in Turkey....

There is apparently no mention of the involvement of the security services in false flag attacks in such places as Pakistan, Indonesia, Turkey or London ......

There is apparently no mention of any CIA involvement in Lockerbie....

Julian Assange was born in 1971 in Townsville, Queensland, Australia.

Reportedly, Julian, together with his mother Claire and his half-brother, spent his childhood fleeing the father of Julian's half-brother.

That father was a member of a cult, called The Family, run by a Anne-Hamilton Byrne.

Anne-Hamilton Byrne ran her 'child-kidnapping cult' on the outskirts of Melbourne.

"Byrne dyed the stolen children’s hair blonde and fed them LSD." (Julian Assange of WikiLeaks: “Destroyer of Worlds)

"The San­ti­nike­tan Park Asso­ci­a­tion of Anne Hamilton-Byrne con­di­tioned chil­dren with drugs, sen­sory depri­va­tion, sleep depri­va­tion, tor­ture and rit­ual sex­ual abuse in order to pro­duce sub­jects who bent to the will of the group’s leader." (Wiki of the Damned)

"Assange claims that Aus­tralian intel­li­gence has advised him, and there is an appar­ent link between Aus­tralian intel­li­gence and the cult." (Wiki of the Damned)

Australian intelligence works closely with the CIA and Mossad.


"Among those on the receiv­ing end of the cult’s ser­vices was Lord Casey, for­mer Governor-General of Aus­tralia and the min­is­ter in charge of over­see­ing the Aus­tralian intel­li­gence ser­vice, with which Assange claims to be connected." (Wiki of the Damned)

"Another indi­ca­tion of seri­ous insti­tu­tional sup­port for the cult con­cerns the par­tic­i­pa­tion in their activ­i­ties of Ronald Con­way. One of Australia’s most promi­nent Catholic intel­lec­tu­als, Con­way appears to have engaged in molesta­tion of chil­dren placed in his care." (Wiki of the Damned)

Anne Hamilton-Byrne acquired fourteen infants and young children between about 1968 and 1975.

Assange was born in 1971. ("Village of the Damned," meet Julian Assange)

Sarah Moore, a 'daughter' of Hamilton-Byrne, was a victim of the cult.

"Unseen, Unheard, Unknown" is the book by Sarah Moore (Hamilton-Byrne).

Sarah Moore alleges that Sandoz, part of the old I.G. Far­ben complex, pro­vid­ed the cult with free LSD.

San­doz bought the fam­ily busi­ness of 'Swiss Nazi financier' Carl Lund­strom.

One of Lundstrom's endeav­ors is Pirate Bay which hosts WIKILEAKS, in Sweden.

Wikileaks would appear to be partly the work of the CIA and its Mossad friends?

Israel would like the world to know that it is not just the Israeli military that sometimes murders kids.

Brits and Iraqis do it too, according to Wikileaks.

And the CIA and Mossad want us to believe some rubbish in Wikileaks about the Iranians.

Only Israel "has the penetration of the Department of Defense that would allow this kind of spying."

"The fact that the supposedly damaging leaks are in fact bolstering American accusations against Iran while minimizing American complicity in Iraqi deaths leads some to believe that the leaks are in fact engineered by the Pentagon to either discredit Wikileaks, or are in conjunction with Wikileaks which is a U.S. government outfit." (Wikileaks under doubt as “classified” documents substantiate bogus U.S. claims


Israel gets a pass in new 'Wikileaks' - Focus is on Iran

Iran: US behind Wikileaks revelations



Saturday, November 13, 2010

This is the Judeo Masonic, US-Israeli cabal at work..... They hate Christians and want to destroy Christianity, from Iraq, Pakistan, Lebanon, Egypt, P

American trained special forces, who target Christians and churches.....

The utter Silence of a Nation..... during the Lebanon 2006 war and GAZA....

This is the Judeo Masonic, US-Israeli cabal at work..... They hate Christians and want to destroy Christianity, from Iraq, Pakistan, Lebanon, Egypt, Palestine to Indonesia....

False flag operations are a specialty of the regiment called Kopassus....similar to Al-CIAda operations in IRAQ, PAKISTAN, LEBANON and elsewhere....

Kopassus has had close links to the Pentagon, Australian special forces, Israel's Mossad, and UK special forces.

Obama boasts of aiding Kopassus.

In 2003, Australian academic Dr Damien Kingsbury wrote:

"Kopassus... set up the Islamic organization Komando Jihad that hijacked the plane in 1981 and which has since emerged as Jemaah Islamiah." (
We must not get back in bed with Kopassus -

Allan Nairn, at Global Research, 10 November 210, wrote about
US Backed Special Forces Engaged in "Murder and Abduction"

According to Allan Nairn:

Secret documents have leaked from inside Kopassus.

These show that Indonesia's US-backed Kopassus regiment targets churches.

And Kopassus is involved in kidnap and murder.

The leaked documents include a Kopassus enemies list.

This is headed by a top Christian minister.

Kopassus is particularly active in West Papua, where tens of thousands of civilians have been murdered - by the military.

West Papua is where you find the US mining giant Freeport McMoRan, linked to Henry Kissinger.

A 25-page secret report, by a Kopassus force in Papua, defines Kopassus' number-one "enemy" as unarmed civilians.

These include the head of the Baptist Synod of Papua and evangelical ministers.

In Indonesia the 'terrorism' is often linked to Christian gangsters, Moslem gangsters and the American trained military.

The Coker Gang is a group of Indonesian gangsters who are of the Christian faith.

In 2002, Berty Loupatty, the leader of the Christian Coker gang, surrendered to the police.

This led to revelations about the alleged role of Kopassus, the army's special forces, in the terror in Indonesia. (

Berty Loupatty claims that most of the terror in Maluku was stage-managed by the military.

Tempo Magazine gained access to police reports, revealing that Coker was involved in at least 13 incidents, 9 of which included members of Kopassus. [Tempo No. 46, 19 January 2003].

Christian Rahayaan, a lawyer for Coker, told the press:

'During questioning, members of the Coker gang said Kopassus soldiers gave them directives, weapons and bombs to carry out every attack (in 2002).

'It's clear that the unrest in Maluku is the work of provocateurs.

'They use the pretext to create the impression that without the military, Maluku won't be safe'.

(AFP, 8 January 2003)

"According to police reports Coker was involved in the destruction of a public transport terminal on 27 August 2001, killing 2 persons and wounding 16. A month later the Christian militia group placed a bomb in a minibus, killing one person.

"On 12 November 2001, supported by a Kopassus member called Ridwan, Coker members planted a bomb in an electronics shop killing 3 persons.

"Just before Christmas Day 2001 they exploded a bomb on a ferry carrying hundreds of passengers, heading towards the Galala harbour in Ambon. The ferry sank, 4 people were killed and scores were wounded.

The Kopassus member involved was known as Dio.

"Together with Kopassus troops, Coker launched attacks on the villages of Portho and Haria on 10 April and 8 May 2002, with the intention of provoking the villagers to fight each other.

"The most vicious combined operation of Coker and Kopassus was the attack on the village of Soya... 22 houses were destroyed by fire, as well as the historic church of Soya built during Portuguese times and 12 people were killed. The Soya bloodbath created new tensions between Muslim and Christian communities.

"It is now clear that the attack was not the work of Muslim warriors as was thought at the time but an attack by a Christian militia gang together with Kopassus units."

Much more here: The 'terrorism' is often linked to Christian gangsters ...

Sources include

This is the Judeo Masonic cabal at work. These people are not Christian. They hate Christians and want to destroy Christianity. What a surprise that the Jewish temples are never attacked or when they are targeted, usually there is no fatalities.....

Wednesday, November 10, 2010


When looking at the London Tube Bomb inquest, or the 9 11 inquiry, always remember Lockerbie....

A former Scottish police chief, gave lawyers a signed statement stating that key evidence in the Lockerbie bombing trial was fabricated.

'The retired officer - of assistant chief constable rank or higher - has testified that the CIA planted the tiny fragment of circuit board crucial in convicting a Libyan for the 1989 mass murder of 270 people.'

( News - Police chief- Lockerbie evidence was faked)

Edwin Bollier is head of the Swiss-based Mebo group which was supposed to have sold the timing device reportedly used in the Lockerbie bomb.

Bollier says that one of his employees supplied the Scottish police with the stolen timing device, which was then presented in the trial as having been found amidst the plane's wreckage.

Ulrich Lumpert, a former employee of the Swiss firm MEBO, has admitted that he stole the timer device from MEBO.

Lumpert says: "I realized that the MST-13 PC-board, after it was handed over by me without permission was misused for deliberate politically criminal 'action'."

(Lockerbie Bombing Trial Faces U-Turn after Perjury Confession)

The bomb timer fragment "was found by two policeman during a search of a wood 35 miles from Lockerbie".

It was later identified by the CIA's Thomas Thurman as being part of a sophisticated timer device made by the Swiss firm of Mebo.

"Thurman was later unmasked as a fraud who had given false evidence in American murder trials..." (Thurman's integrity questioned)

According to The mail on Sunday (LOCKERBIE BOMBING EVIDENCE 'PLANTED' - Mail on Sunday 21 December 2008):

"New forensic analysis on a fragment of the timing device alleged to have triggered the bomb that brought down Pan Am jet 103 on December 21, 1988, is said to have found no trace of explosive residue...

"A source close to the investigation said: ‘The only piece of forensic evidence in the chain that pointed to Libyan guilt has never been near the seat of an explosion.’...

"'The new tests, the first carried out independently, reveal no explosive residue...

"'Tests carried out replicating the explosion have proved the circuit board would have been completely vaporised...

"It has long been suspected of being a plant - and it is a plant."

What about the London Tube Bombings?

"The bombs used in Thursday's terrorist attacks were of 'military origin', according to a senior French policeman sent to London to help in what has become the biggest criminal investigation in British history.

"Christophe Chaboud, head of the French Anti-Terrorism Co-ordination Unit, told Le Monde newspaper that the explosives used in the bombings were of 'military origin.'" (Explosive used in bombs 'was of military origin'.)

The 77 inquests blogspot ( reports:

That the explosions occurred on the floors of the trains was further confirmed during the trial of Waheed Ali, Mohammed Shakil and Sadeer Saleem when the testimony of Fort Halstead Forensics expert, Clifford Todd, was reported:

The bombers scattered identity and bank cards around the Tube carriages they targeted before placing their rucksacks on the floor and setting off the explosives inside them, jurors heard.

The details emerged for the first time as a forensics expert's evidence was read at the trial of three men accused of helping to plan the atrocity.

Jurors were told the "unique" bomb mixture was made up of black pepper and hydrogen peroxide, which was put into ordinary plastic bags alongside ice-packs to cool the volatile material.

The bombers were not wearing the rucksacks at the time of the explosions, but had instead put them down on the floor of the bus and Tube trains, it was claimed.

Source: The Telegraph

Danny Biddle is the only witness to ever publicly claim to have actually seen alleged bomber Mohammed Sidique Khan on Circle Line train 216 at Edgware Road.

Danny Biddle says he thinks he saw an Asian man, supposed to be Khan.

According to Biddle, this Asian did not scatter identity and bank cards around the carriage prior to the explosion.

According to Biddle, this Asian did not place any rucksack on the floor.


"There was nothing about him that made me think he was dangerous in any way or anything like that.

"If there would have been, I would have got off the train and got help. I mean, he was just a -- he looked like a normal guy going to work within London, whatever he did, and there was nothing that he did that made him stand out different to anybody else at that particular moment in time.

"He had a rucksack, like a small, black camping rucksack.

"I remember it being on his lap."


Letter to Lady Justice Hallett - TERROR ON THE TUBE


Tuesday, November 9, 2010


The general

On 8 November 2010, we learn that:

A former NATO general has admitted to carrying out an act of false flag terrorism.

The general said "Certain acts of sabotage are staged and blamed on the enemy to increase public resistance.

"We did this on Cyprus.

"We even burnt down a mosque."

The general concerned is General Sabri Yirmibesoglu, the Turkish general who helped prepare the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus. (Retired general confesses to burning mosque to fire up public)

Henry Kissinger wanted Turkey to invade Cyprus. (CIA Document confirms Kissinger's involvement in selling Cyprus ...)

So the Turkish Cypriots had to be made angry.

In the early 1970s, Greece was run by colonels who were assets of the CIA; and the military in Turkey were also friends of the CIA.

According to Michael Jansen, at :

In the early 1970s, a deal was discussed by Greek and Turkish ministers.

According to this deal:

1. Cyprus would be split.

2. A Turkish military base would be set up on Cyprus.

3. The mainly Greek part of the Island would join up with Greece. (The Importance of Cyprus)

Fatih Mosque

NATO generals seem fond of attacking mosques.

The Sledgehammer document, a military document unearthed in Turkey, included plans by NATO generals to bomb the Fatih and Beyazıt mosques in Istanbul and down a Turkish jet over the Aegean.


The Excavator asks When Will U.S. Leaders Confess To The American People That America Carries Out False-Flag Attacks As Part of Its Foreign Policy?

"In September of this year, a retired Turkish general named Sabri Yirmibeshoglu admitted on Turkish television that the Turkish government carried out false-flag attacks on the island of Cyprus in the 1960s in order to instill feelings of hatred and revenge in Turkish Cypriots against the Cyprus government.

"The false-flag operations successfully destabilized the island, and helped Turkey's military objectives."

"Yirmibeshoglu was the former Secretary-General of the National Security Council (MGK), and the chief of Turkey’s Special Warfare Department."

According to Elias Hazou’s report, on 24 September 2010, in the Cyprus Mail:

Created in 1953 as part of the Turkish secret service, the Special Warfare Department is believed by commentators in Turkey to be the executive branch of the so-called 'deep state.'

Turgut Ozal died in mysterious circumstances.

According to The Excavator:

Yirmibeshoglu was named by Ahmet Özal as one of the suspects involved in the assassination attempt on his father, Turgut Özal, in 1988.

Özal served as Turkey’s Prime Minister from 1983 to 1989, and as President from 1989 to 1993.

According to an article in Today's Zaman, 30 September 2010:

Özal said his father was killed because he had resolved to find a peaceful and democratic solution to the Kurdish question.

He said deep state elements, which were said to be Ergenekon by some and JİTEM by others, worked hard to destroy peace in Turkey in 1993, a year filled with politically motivated assassinations and suspicious deaths of important public, military and political figures.

Agents of the CIA and and NATO have been blamed for the 1980 Bologna Bomb.

According to The Excavator

America’s secret state orchestrated false-flag events and executed bombing campaigns ... in order to produce a sense of fear and helplessness in their populations.

Daniele Ganser’s deep research into this scandalous activity, which was done by a network of stay-behind armies organized by NATO, led him to write a book called “NATO’s Secret Armies: Operation GLADIO and Terrorism in Western Europe.”

NATO’s secret terrorists were of great help to the U.S. establishment.

Prior to the military coup d’état in Turkey on September 12, 1980, the CIA and NATO in cooperation with the Turkish military funded and trained secret groups to carry out false-flag attacks and terrorism with the purpose to undermine civil society, and create the condition in which a military takeover would be feasible.

It’s known as the strategy of tension, and it is considered standard operation procedure by military/deep-state insiders in America, Turkey, Israel, England, and other countries in the world that are dominated by anti-democratic interests.

Since the end of World War Two, Western democratic governments have fallen prey to the powerful individuals who operate secretly against the public interests inside the deep-state apparatus of each nation.

Americans have a history of killing Indians on more than one continent (MORE EVIDENCE CIA DID TERROR ATTACKS IN INDIA?)

According to professor Peter Dale Scott, the attack on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001 was part of a long series of “deep events” in America.

Peter Dale Scott:

However to call 9/11 a coup d’état exaggerates the difference between the current weakened condition of the public state, and the prior state of affairs that has been building for years, indeed for decades, towards just such a dénouement.

For half a century the constitution and laws of the open or public state have been first evaded, then eroded, then increasingly challenged and subverted, by the forces of the deep state.

I wish to suggest that this erosion has been achieved in part through a series of important deep events in post-war American history – events aspects of which (it is clear from the outset) will be ignored or suppressed in the mainstream media.

Recent history has seen a number of such events, such as the assassination of John F. Kennedy, that are so inexplicable by the public notions of American politics that most Americans tend not even to think of them.

Instead most accept the official surface explanations for them, even if they suspect these are not true. Or if others say they believe that “Oswald acted alone,” they may do so in the same comforting but irrational state of mind that believes God will reward the righteous and punish the wicked.

According to The Excavator:

The nature of the deep-state is such that not everybody in the government knows what is going on behind the scenes.

Military officials and public representatives who are part of the deep-state are unlikely to confess to the press and the public about their involvement and knowledge, as they would be admitting to committing high treason, and great crimes.

Their confession would be followed by their hanging, basically.

Some government officials, like Sen. Patrick Leahy, and Rep. Dennis Kucinich, have called for a truth and reconciliation commission to fully investigate the government’s secret torture programs, illegal surveillance, and the questions surrounding the Sept.11 events.

Aside from a few crickets, nobody in the media has made any noise about the suggestion to set up some type of truth commission in the United States.

Instead of the truth about 9/11 and the deep-state getting filtered through mainstream sources, or the alternative media, it is grassroots organizations like the International Center for 9/11 Studies and anti-establishment media outlets like the Alex Jones show and Coast to Coast AM that are exposing the war criminals and informing the public about the dark corruption....

Thursday, November 4, 2010

A Mini Summit between Saad Hariri and the Duke of York in London...., while Lebanon sits on top a Volcano....

"While the Lebanon is at the edge of a volcano, its Prime Minister is heading off to Britain to meet the Duke of York? An illiterate, good for nothing, lazy individual with a reputation for accepting bribes and selling his name and 'status' to the highest bidder - using his (...) ex-wife, with whom he lives. The said Duke has no government responsibility, no official function, no role in any decision making - apart from some failed commercial activities. The intense inter-marriages within his family, and his scandalous behavior led to the presumption that he is as dim as his mother!So why is the Lebanese Prime Minister meeting with him? Is he going to charge the Lebanese Government for a deal he is making with the wayward Prince?

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

The Syria-Israel-Hezbollah Triangle

Sun setting over the skyline of Tel Aviv, courtesy of Ron Almog/flickr

What does the future have in store for the region?

Since Israel’s inconclusive war with Hezbollah in the summer of 2006, there has been saber rattling between Israel, Hezbollah and Syria. Following the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, by Asef SHAWKAT's goons in Syria... Hezbollah’s military leader, Israel said it would hold Lebanon accountable for any Hezbollah retaliation in the future....., but, should there be any retaliation at all, Hezbollah KNOWS that it should be directed against Asef SHAWKAT in Damascus......

By Simon A Waldman

In addition to supplying long range weapons such as M-600 and scuds missiles to Hezbollah, Syria was recently reported to have entered into a military alliance with Hezbollah, consisting of joint headquarters which would take hold in the event of war with Israel. In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Leiberman warned last April that, "Assad should know that if he attacks, he will not only lose the war, neither he nor his family will remain in power" . Given the heightened tensions, the possibility of Syrian involvement in a future Israel-Hezbollah war warrants further attention.

Diplomatic deterrence

While it remains a distinct possibility that Israel would attack Lebanese targets during a future conflagration with Hezbollah, it is doubtful that Israel would willingly extend the war to Syria. This remains the case even if Israel were to set itself an ambitious (and unrealistic) aim of eliminating Hezbollah.

Israel would inevitably face condemnation from all corners of the international community; from allies and even the US, and would be hard pressed to find approval from Washington, keen to engage Syria and concerned about Syria's ability to make life difficult for troops in neighboring Iraq. An Israeli attack and the lack of US support would make the likelihood of an emergency UN Security Council meeting and subsequent binding resolution a near guarantee, limiting Israel's time and ability to launch a credible and effective operation against Syria.

Indeed, expanding a war against Hezbollah would effectively assure Israel of international isolation. Following the US lead, Europe, Canada and Australia would outwardly condemn Israel's actions in the harshest tone possible and would add fuel to the fire of the 'boycott Israel' movement. Much closer to home, Israel would face unrest not only in the Palestinian territories, but also in Arab neighborhoods in the north of Israel. Egypt, Jordan and Turkey would recall their ambassadors (assuming that Turkey's ambassador will soon be re-stationed in Tel Aviv) and face virulent public demands that future relations with Israel be reassessed.

Further, anger on the streets would lead Arab League members to denounce Israel in the harshest terms. Unlike the quiet satisfaction that came from some quarters during Israel's 2006 war against Hezbollah, an attack against Syria, a member of the Arab League, would not be supported by Arab states whose own regimes would be threatened by domestic anger over a failure to respond.

Pandora's box

In such difficult diplomatic circumstances it is highly doubtful that Israel would have enough time to concentrate efforts on Syria. Israel's two most recent conflicts, the Hezbollah War of 2006 and Operation Cast Lead, Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza in 2008, barely lasted a month. Israel's limited time would be best spent concentrating its efforts on Hezbollah rather than broadening the conflict to include Syria, making it an altogether different war; a conventional one pitting state against state.

But assuming that, as Leiberman predicted, Israel did go to war against Syria, attacking Syrian targets, and destroying its airforce and the Assad regime, the question of Assad's successor would become urgent. It is highly doubtful that Israel would want to open such a pandora's box. Despite the rhetoric, posturing and concern over Syria's ties to Iran and Hezbollah, Israel has enjoyed over two decades of relative quiet on its Syrian front.

While Syria does not pose a serious threat to Israel on the battlefield, the launch of multiple projectiles from Syria into Israel is a risk which Israel would be highly reluctant to take. Close to one million Israelis left their homes in the north during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War, and with Syria in possession of long range missiles capable of hitting population centers and strategic locations in all of Israel, Syria poses enough of a threat to Israeli civilians to deter a significant Israeli strike. Although just a marginal possibility, an escalation against Syria might also bring Iran into the conflict. Such a large-scale war is something Israel would only resign itself to as a last resort.

Syria's strategic imperatives

As far as Israel and Lebanon are concerned, Syria is in a relatively strong position. Through Hezbollah, Assad maintains influence in Lebanese affairs. This status quo will likely continue into the near future. Even the potential fallout from future events such as the conclusions of the Rifik Hariri investigations, which will most likely blame Hezbollah for the former prime minister's death, is unlikely to damage Syrian influence to any considerable degree.

However, standing on the sidelines of an Israeli attack on Lebanese targets in a war which would arguably be caused by Syria's proxy, Hezbollah, would not endear Syria to the Lebanese public or the political echelons. This is why Syria would not encourage Hezbollah to provoke Israel in the near future. Even if it is unsuccessful in doing so and an Israel-Hezbollah war did ensue, possibly with the backing of Iran, Hezbollah's other sponsor, Assad would be very reluctant to join the conflict. Indeed, despite Syria's vested interests in Lebanon, Hezbollah and its alliance with Iran, Assad would not risk his regime for it.

This is not to say that there is no chance of an Israeli attack against Syria in the event of war with Hezbollah. However, if any such actions were to take place they would be isolated and very limited, such as strikes against imminent transfers of weaponry which could tip the strategic balance, rather than any full-scale fighting. And such operations, while highly embarrassing for Assad, would not see the end of his regime. Therefore, even if Israel were to broaden an offensive to include large-scale attacks on Lebanese infrastructure - or even if Hezbollah were beaten to a point of existential danger - the possibility of Syria attacking Israel remains remote. Syria would want to avoid giving Israel a casus belli to launch an attack, which would see the end of the Assad regime.

Unlikely war, unpredictable situation

A future war between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely to involve Syria, and if there were any kind of engagement it would be on a small scale, with Israel most likely attacking the transfer of balance-altering weaponry. If Israel were to attack Syria without a significant casus belli, it could face unprecedented diplomatic isolation as well as thousands of rockets aimed at its population centers and military targets. Assad, on the other hand, stands to lose his hold on power if he becomes embroiled in a large-scale conflict with Israel. Both parties have compelling reasons to want to avoid such an eventuality. There is no cause for complacency, however. In a border where hedging trees can lead to a fatal exchange of fire, and Iranian nuclear ambitions could provoke an Israeli attack, unpredictability remains the best presumption.